DOCUMENT-LEVEL FUTURE EVENT PREDICTION INTEGRATING EVENT KNOWLEDGE GRAPH AND LLM TEMPORAL REASONING

Abstract

Predicting future events is crucial for temporal reasoning, providing valuable insights for decision-making across diverse domains. However, the intricate global interactions and temporal–causal relationships at the document level event present significant challenges. This study introduces a novel document-level future event prediction method that integrates an event knowledge graph and a large language model (LLM) reasoning frame work based on metacognitive theory. Initially, an event knowledge graph is constructed by extracting event chains from the original document-level event texts. An LLM-based approach is then used to generate diverse and rational positive and negative training samples. Subsequently, a future event reasoning framework based on metacognitive theory is introduced. This framework enhances the model’s reasoning capabilities through a cyclic process of task understanding, reasoning strategy planning, strategy execution, and strategy reflection. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms baseline models. Notably, the incorporation of the event knowledge graph significantly enhances the performance of different reasoning methods, while the proposed reasoning framework achieves superior performance in document-level future event pre diction tasks. Furthermore, the interpretability analysis of the prediction results validates the effectiveness of the proposed method. This study advances research on document-level future event prediction, highlighting the critical role of event knowledge graphs and large language models in temporal reasoning. It offers a more sophisticated future event prediction framework for government management departments, facilitating the enhancement of government safety management strategies.